©copyright 2006
Robert Todd Carroll
The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental illness, disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves, among other things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to phases of the moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous studies have tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to establish much of interest. Lunar effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with human behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on global temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth of plants. Of course, there have been single studies here and there that have found correlations between various phases of the moon and this or that phenomenon, but nothing significant has been replicated sufficiently to warrant claiming a probable causal relationship.
Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver (1996) examined over 100 studies on lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a reliable and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance) between the full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the following: the homicide rate, traffic accidents, -crisis calls to police or fire stations, domestic violence, births of babies, suicide, major disasters, casino payout rates, assassinations, kidnappings, aggression by professional hockey players, violence in prisons, psychiatric admissions [one study found admissions were lowest during a full moon], agitated behavior by nursing home residents, assaults, gunshot wounds, stabbings, emergency room admissions, behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged rural adults, lycanthropy, vampirism, alcoholism, sleep walking, epilepsy. If so many studies have failed to prove a significant correlation between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe in these lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media effects, folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. A fifth factor should be considered, as well communal reinforcement...



